School Demand Forecasting in Moreton Bay
A statistical and GIS-based analysis of school demand to identify the optimum site for a new school in Moreton Bay on behalf of Brisbane Catholic Education (BCE). It uses real enrolment data, analysing trends over time to develop a probabilistic model of the growth rates for new catchment areas. This factors in travel patterns and ‘attractiveness’ features to identify the better of two locations for a new school in the rapidly growing region. We then adapted and applied the model to assist BCE in determining the viability of a new primary/secondary school in a neighbouring region, factoring in the existing school provision, population growth and the likelihood that the new school would attract a sufficient number of new enrollees to warrant the investment.
